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The Commercial Bit™

Wellness

Wellness businesses sell outcomes over time. Their economics should be judged that way.

Market context

Market context

Wellness, fitness and health-adjacent consumer businesses depend on memberships, packages and habits. Early churn and introductory offers decide whether acquisition creates value.

Commercial pressures

  • 01Introductory offers that attract customers who never convert.
  • 02Early-life churn hidden by new sign-ups.
  • 03Retail and service mixes with very different margins.

Customer economics questions

The questions leadership should be able to answer.

  1. Q1

    What share of introductory customers become full-price members?

  2. Q2

    When does churn happen, and what predicts it?

  3. Q3

    Which offers create lasting habits rather than trials?

Illustrative commercial problem

Illustrative · Not a client example

The introductory offer that never converted

Illustrative pattern. A studio group's trial offer drives record sign-ups. Few convert to full membership, and the cost of serving trial users exceeds what the converting minority is worth.

Intelligence

Related thinking.

All insights

Customer EconomicsObservation 0022 min read

−14.6%

Growth is not the same thing as value.

A business can get bigger and weaker at the same time. The gap shows up first in the customers, not in the P&L.

Customer EconomicsObservation 0042 min read

1.2 : 1

The ratio that reads 3 to 1, and isn't.

An LTV:CAC ratio is only as good as the churn behind it. Replace assumed churn with observed churn and the green light can turn red.

PricingObservation 0062 min read

+75%

The discount that needs 75% more units.

Break-even volume on a promotion is almost always higher than the discount itself. At 30% off and a 70% margin, it is 75%.

A TCB engagement

10–15

Business days

Customer Economics Sprint

One commercial diagnosis and a clear 90-day path forward: the constraint identified, the economics diagnosed, the opportunity benchmarked and the intervention prioritized.

Bring the constraint.We'll give it direction.

Start with the commercial problem you're trying to solve. We'll identify the constraint, diagnose the economics, and determine whether there is a useful next step.

  1. 01Identify the constraint
  2. 02Diagnose the economics
  3. 03Recommend the right intervention
  4. 04Define the next move