Commercial thinking for people making commercial decisions.
Original commercial analysis. Every figure carries an evidence label, and hypothetical examples say so in the first line, so the arithmetic can stay clean.
Featured
PricingObservation 0062 min read
+75%
extra units needed to break even on 30% off at a 70% gross margin
Break-even volume on a promotion is almost always higher than the discount itself. At 30% off and a 70% margin, it is 75%.
Decide what the promotion has to prove before it runs again, not how big it should be.
Read the observation5
decisions: what a diagnostic should reduce the problem to
Commercial StrategyObservation 0092 min read
More dashboards add answers to questions nobody asked. The constraint is the decision, not the data.
20%
the question to ask every partner before spend is locked
Marketing & SalesObservation 0082 min read
The question to ask every partner before the budget is locked. Not an accusation: a test of whose incentive is in the room.
92
days in Q4. Each one produces revenue and evidence.
Market IntelligenceObservation 0072 min read
Every trading peak produces revenue and evidence. The revenue is banked; the evidence is usually filed and forgotten.
+75%
extra units needed to break even on 30% off at a 70% gross margin
PricingObservation 0062 min read
Break-even volume on a promotion is almost always higher than the discount itself. At 30% off and a 70% margin, it is 75%.
$0.90
gross profit per $1 of spend, from customers who were not already yours
Marketing & SalesObservation 0052 min read
Attribution asks who touched the sale. Incrementality asks who would not have bought otherwise. The difference can be most of the return.
1.2 : 1
LTV : CAC once assumed churn is replaced with observed churn
Customer EconomicsObservation 0042 min read
An LTV:CAC ratio is only as good as the churn behind it. Replace assumed churn with observed churn and the green light can turn red.
−8.2%
illustrative fall in CAC, bought with weaker customers
Marketing & SalesObservation 0032 min read
Optimizing for cost per acquisition finds the customers who are cheapest to reach, not the ones worth reaching.
−14.6%
illustrative 90-day value of new customers while revenue grew 18.4%
Customer EconomicsObservation 0022 min read
A business can get bigger and weaker at the same time. The gap shows up first in the customers, not in the P&L.
4
different questions hiding inside one revenue number
GrowthObservation 0012 min read
A rising line proves something happened. It says nothing about why, whether it was worth it, or whether it will happen again.
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One number, one mechanism, one decision. Nothing else.
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